Super Wild Card Weekend failed to disappoint last weekend, and it looks like this weekend's slate of Divisional Round games are set to deliver once again.
Saturday will be the first time we get to see each conference's #1 seed in action, as Kansas City hosts Jacksonville at 4:30 and the Philadelphia Eagles host the New York Football Giants at 8:15.
Sunday's slate consists of the highly anticipated Buffalo-Cincinatti rematch, while the nightcap will feature Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Dallas Cowboys.
Without further of due, I want to give my prediction for each game, and offer a little bit of analysis for each contest.
GAME ONE: JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY
After surmounting the third-largest comeback in NFL Postseason History, the Jacksonville Jaguars roll into Kansas City as an underdog yet again. Whereas many members of the national media will steer clear of picking Jacksonville, here is why I don't think it's as crazy of an upset as it sounds.
Trevor Lawrence threw four first-half interceptions. Yikes, right? Wrong. If you watch the tape, you'll see that it was a series of unfortunate events that led to at least half of those INT's.
Here is a slow-motion video that goes through each interception.
The first interception is your standard RPO play that is ran by a number of teams. Trevor is reading the Left Outside Linebacker, #49. If he bites on the run fake, which he does, Trevor is told to pull and throw to either of his receivers to the right. This is a man-to-man look, so when #49 bites, he has clear throwing lanes. You can clearly see this in the back copy around 1:20 in the video.
Only he doesn't, because defensive-end Joey Bosa makes a great read and is able to get a hand on the throw. Oftentimes when a defensive lineman is able to get a hand on the ball, the blame is placed on the offensive lineman blocking him. O-linemen are taught to get defender's hands down. Clearly, interception #1 falls on Jacksonville's Right Tackle and two fortunate deflections that "bounced" Los Angeles' way.
The second interception can be broken down a few ways. First, an untouched linebacker has a clear shot at Lawrence. This affects Lawrence's ability to set his feet properly and step into the throw. Jacksonville's Offensive Line also blocked this play wrong. LA brings 5, so the Jags should be able to have a body on a body. What looks like a great defensive call may have simply been a missed assignment up front.
Secondly, at 2:58 seconds, it's hard to argue that the defender didn't get away with a Pass Interference. He is all over Zay Jones, which clearly affects how "clean" Jones is able to get out of his break. To me, a missed assignment upfront and an uncalled PI are to blame for the second interception. Not Trevor.
The third interception falls on Trevor. This clip is at 4:50 seconds. Lawrence stares down Evan Engram and throws it right into the defender's hands. The fourth interception, at 5:50, also falls on Trevor. These last two interceptions seem like he was trying to make the "hero-play" down multiple scores. 3rd and long, Lawrence just tries to fit a ball into a tight window, not an ideal situation and it ultimately went the other way.
When you look at the tape, a 24-point comeback probably should've never had to occur. Jacksonville was good enough to have been in the game much longer than they were, and quite frankly, they should've been. A few balls bounce their way in the first half, and Jacksonville may have won that game handily.
So why do I go so in-depth with that analysis? Why does it apply to this week's game at Kansas City? Because this team is good. Doug Pederson has been in this spot before and he's won the big game. This is in my eyes the ultimate trap game for Kansas City. The #1 seed has struggled in years past: Tennessee and Green Bay both lost in the Divisional Round last year as #1 seeds. Kansas City struggled two years ago as the top-seed against Cleveland, needing a Chad Henne fourth-down conversion to move on to the AFC Championship. With Kansas City wanting to avenge regular season losses to both Buffalo and Cincinnati (Cincy has won the last three matchups against Kansas City, including the playoffs), Kansas City needs to be weary of looking ahead.
Jacksonville lost 27-17 to Kansas City in Week 10, in a game where Trevor Lawrence played well. This game will be close, and I believe it will be the first of many playoff battles between Mahomes and Lawrence. Although I do have Kansas City advancing, don't be surprised if we see Duval County's own advancing to the AFC Championship. Side Note - Trevor Lawrence is 41-0 on Saturday through High School, College, and the NFL.
FINAL SCORE: Kansas City 35, Jacksonville 24
GAME TWO: NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA
Ah, yes, in one year we've seen the NFC Least transform into the NFC Beasts. 3 of the 4 remaining NFC teams reign from the Eastern Division, and it's not by accident. Nick Sirianni has helped transform Jalen Hurts into an MVP candidate and their offense into one of the league's best. Their defense has four starters with double-digit sacks, and a secondary filled with ball-hawks.
On the other sideline, Brian Daboll has totally rebuilt and restored a winning culture in New York. After a few years of trying to build around star running back Saquon Barkley, Daboll, in just one year, has himself an offensive line that can run the ball, and a quarterback in Daniel Jones who can beat you with his arm and his legs. The Giants are coming off an impressive defensive performance against a high-powered Minnesota Vikings offense.
It's difficult to beat someone twice in a season, let alone three times. I really like this matchup, and I think there is something about this New York Giants team that screams 2007. Philly has been the team to beat in the NFC all season long, and rightfully so. I think momentum matters, I think the divisional aspect of this game matters, and I think Daboll and the G-men are going to thrive in the underdog role once again. Start spreading the news, as Frank Sinatra says. Give me New York.
FINAL SCORE: New York 27, Philadelphia 24
GAME THREE: CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO
This has Game-of-the-century written all over it. If you like storylines, dramatics, and high-level football, turn the TV to CBS at 3:00 on Sunday.
For Buffalo, they were at Cincinnati's Paycor Stadium just a few weeks ago when they watched as their teammate Damar Hamlin was brought back to life by medical personnel. After overcoming the emotional toll of that night, and everything else that came with it, the Bills finished with the #2 seed in the AFC and squeaked out a victory at home against 7th-seeded Miami last week. It's being reported that Hamlin could be in attendance for Sunday's game, and I can only imagine the moment that his appearance would create and the spark it would give Buffalo.
With all of that being said, this is a phenomenal football team... when they don't beat themselves. They have talent at all 22 positions, and this is the kind of team that can score early and often - on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in football, but his incredible arm-talent has thrown them out of some games this season. His three turnovers last week almost allowed the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins to pull off an upset for the ages.
For Cincinnati, this is a team that has felt disrespected for weeks. After Damar Hamlin's injury cancelled the Bills-Bengals regular season game, Cincy's chances of getting a top-two seed were practically diminished. When the league announced that a coin-toss could decide home field for a potential Bengals-Ravens playoff matchup if Baltimore were to win their Week 18 contest, Cincinnati went out and played bully-ball in the first half en-route to a 27-16 AFC North-clinching victory; and celebrated accordingly by punting the coin-toss out of the stadium.
The scene is set. Cincinnati feels like they were well on their way to winning that Week 17 matchup before Hamlin's injury occurred. They feel slighted of home field advantage in the playoffs. Cincinnati rides a 9-game winning streak into Orchard Park, while Buffalo hoists an 8-game winning streak.
In a game like this, I think it comes down to the man under-center. For me, Josh Allen might be the most talented quarterback in the league, but he's a classic example of the old fashion gunslinger. When the bills are rolling, they're unstoppable. But if Tua Tagovailoa was healthy last week, Miami probably wins that game. Allen's ability to be careless with the ball, like he was last week, scares me for Buffalo. Right now, I trust Joe Burrow in the big moment more than I trust Josh Allen. For that reason, I have Cincinnati winning an instant classic.
FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 48, Buffalo 42
GAME FOUR: DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO
It seems that the entire world is starstruck by Mr. Irrelevant himself, San Fransisco 49ers' quarterback Brock Purdy. The rookie from Iowa State came into the league as the last pick in last year's NFL Draft and found himself at the bottom of the depth chart in San Fransisco behind former 1st Round Pick Trey Lance and Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo.
All of the hype surrounding Purdy is warranted, to say the least. Dan Orlovsky, a former NFL quarterback turned ESPN personality, shared a clip that highlights why he believes Purdy is having so much success. It's film like this that really shows that Purdy understands the system, which is pivotal for a young quarterback.
This 49er team is stacked from top to bottom. Their defense is arguably the best in the NFL, and after trading for Christian McCaffrey, they may be the most explosive offense in the NFL. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is well respected amongst the league and the media for his offensive system for many reasons, but the recent success that Purdy has had may just show how bulletproof Shanahan's offense truly is.
With that being said, this Dallas team is no joke either. When they are playing at their best, they are one of the best teams in the league. They have a dominant defense that's led by Micah Parsons and plenty of threats on offense. However, they have also shown that they are prone to lackluster performances as well. The same team that went to Minnesota and won 40-3 also went to Washington and lost 26-6 in the regular season finale - with the conference's #1 seed on the line. The problem with Dallas is that you just don't know which version you're going to get, and much of that correlates with not knowing which version of Dak Prescott you're going to get.
In that loss to Washington, Prescott was 14/37 with 128 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Yet in the Wild Card game at Tampa Bay just six days later, Prescott was 25/33 with 305 yards and four scores.
Dallas is going to have to get Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard involved early if they want to win this game. Dak can be stellar, but it's going to be much easier for him to get comfortable if Dallas can get the run going early.
This will be Brock Purdy's toughest challenge yet, but don't act like the former Cyclone isn't battle tested. He was a four-year starter in college, so he's played a ton of football. He's now won seven straight games, including a playoff game against a division opponent. Parsons and company will make him uncomfortable, but I like San Fransisco to beat Dallas in the playoffs for the second year in a row. America's team will have to wait another year for that highly coveted sixth Lombardi.
FINAL SCORE: San Fransisco 35, Dallas 17
Thanks for reading! Let's have a weekend, Divisional Round.
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